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5GW、10GW成为新单位:Anthropic与OpenAI的算力军备竞赛

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

当算力的计量单位从"多少张卡"变成"多少吉瓦",AI竞争的本质已经改变:大模型公司正在变成"能源公司+基建公司+模型公司"的三位一体。

5GW与10GW:新计量单位的诞生​

2026年9月的行业报道显示,AI算力竞赛进入了一个全新的量级:Anthropic的目标是在今年年底拥有约5GW的可用算力,而OpenAI明年的规划则是约10GW。

这两个数字意味着什么?5GW大致相当于数百万张高性能GPU同时满负荷运转所需的电力,而10GW已经接近一座大型核电站的装机容量。就在一年前,行业讨论的还是"十万卡集群";如今,头部玩家谈论的是吉瓦级园区。算力竞赛的计量单位,已经从GPU的数量彻底转向了电力的功率。

从"买卡"到"买电厂"​

这种变迁背后,是AI产业价值链的整体上移:

  • 能源成为第一约束。先进AI芯片供应在改善,但变电站、输电线路和发电容量的建设周期以年计。谁拿到电力指标,谁就拿到训练下一代模型的入场券。
  • 基建能力成为核心竞争力。数据中心不再是租用IDC机房那么简单,而是涉及选址、并网、冷却系统乃至自有发电能力的系统工程。
  • 模型公司与芯片公司深度绑定。OpenAI与博通合作开发Jalapeño自研芯片,并规划多吉瓦级部署,这已经不是"采购算力",而是"定制算力供应链"。

20-30MW小数据中心为何成为抢手货​

一个耐人寻味的细节是:Anthropic和OpenAI两家还在争抢20-30MW级别的小型数据中心,Anthropic甚至向SpaceX租用算力。

原因很直接——大容量数据中心从规划到投运周期太长,而模型训练和推理需求等不起。20-30MW的小站点虽然容量有限,但胜在可快速拿容量:现有楼宇改造、电力接口现成、数月内即可上线。对于急需算力缺口的大模型公司,这批"小快灵"资源成了战略物资,甚至在二级市场上被反复转租、溢价争夺。向SpaceX租算力则更为激进——当地面电力不够快时,头部玩家已经开始评估包括星载算力在内的非常规选项。

算力军备竞赛的经济账​

这场竞赛的规模有多大?根据Bain 2026技术报告的口径,AI硬件市场2025年约为312.1亿美元,2026年预计达到384.9亿美元。而吉瓦级算力园区背后,是单笔动辄数十亿美元级别的芯片采购与多年期电力合约。

算力的本质正在从"IT设备"变成"重资产基础设施"——它的融资方式(项目融资、长期租约)、回报模型(算力利用率、每token成本)都越来越像电厂和通信网络,而不是服务器机房。

对AI芯片厂商意味着什么​

吉瓦级竞赛重塑了芯片厂商的客户结构,谁绑定大客户谁受益的格局愈发清晰:

厂商核心绑定关系算力绑定规模
NVIDIA微软 / OpenAI深度绑定OpenAI,吉瓦级部署主力供应商
AMDOpenAI / Meta / AnthropicOpenAI 6GW、Meta 6GW、Anthropic(多年期协议)
OpenAI(自研)博通合作Jalapeño多吉瓦级部署规划
云厂商自研AWS Trainium、Google TPU等服务自有平台负载

对芯片厂商而言,这带来两个深远影响:其一,订单变得极度集中,一张吉瓦级订单足以改变一家芯片公司的营收曲线,NVIDIA与AMD过去一年股价的分化某种程度上就是绑定关系的映射;其二,芯片设计开始围绕客户的电力预算优化,每瓦性能取代峰值算力成为核心指标——因为客户的稀缺资源不是芯片,而是那几吉瓦的电。

小结​

5GW和10GW不只是两个数字,它们标志着AI竞争进入了"基建时代":电力取代芯片成为第一约束,20-30MW小数据中心成为快速补位的战略资源,大模型公司集能源、基建、模型三重身份于一身。对AI芯片产业来说,这意味着订单向深度绑定大客户的产品集中、设计向每瓦性能倾斜。算力军备竞赛的下半场,比的不是谁的芯片跑分更高,而是谁能先把电厂建起来、把电接进来。

昇腾950智算集群云服务正式商用:9月30日国内上线、11月30日全球商用

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

华为全联接大会2026给出明确时间表:昇腾950智算集群云服务9月30日国内商用、11月30日全球商用,全球首个NPO超节点昇腾960同步亮相。

HUAWEI CONNECT 2026:商用时间表落定​

2026年9月17日,华为全联接大会在上海举行。大会上,华为披露了昇腾950智算集群云服务的商用节奏:9月30日国内商用,11月30日全球商用。从大会披露到国内上线仅半个月,节奏之紧,说明昇腾950超节点的规模化交付已经就绪。

关键节点时间/地点
华为全联接大会20262026年9月17日(上海)
昇腾950智算集群云服务国内商用2026年9月30日
昇腾950智算集群云服务全球商用2026年11月30日

"国内先行、两月后推向全球"的节奏也传递出另一个信号:昇腾不再只盯着国内市场,智算集群云服务将作为中国AI算力方案走出去的载体,参与全球算力供给的竞争。

昇腾960超节点:全球首个NPO超节点​

同期发布的昇腾960超节点,是全球首个NPO超节点(近封装光学超节点),关键规格如下:

指标数值
卡规模4096卡
算力8 EFLOPS FP8 / 16 EFLOPS FP4
显存1PB HBM
光互联方案5500个Hi-ONE光引擎,替代4.8万颗800G光模块
降功耗550kW
可用度99.8%
Hi-ONE单引擎传输容量7.2T

这组数字的核心看点在于光互联的代际切换:用5500个Hi-ONE光引擎替代4.8万颗800G光模块,降低550kW功耗,同时做到99.8%的可用度。NPO(近封装光学)路线在超节点规模下的价值被直观呈现——光模块数量下降一个数量级,意味着故障点、功耗与运维复杂度同步大幅收敛。在4096卡这种规模的系统里,互联可靠性直接决定训练任务的连续性。

昇腾950超节点:规模商用与SOTA背书​

昇腾950超节点已规模商用1000多套,落地行业覆盖互联网、运营商、金融、教育、医疗、交通、制造等。规模数字之外,更关键的背书是:昇腾950超节点是国内唯一训练出SOTA模型的超节点。

"能训练出SOTA模型"是对训练集群最硬核的检验——它证明的不仅是硬件规格,而是"集群规模+互联效率+软件栈"的组合在大规模训练中真实可用。对于正在选型的行业客户而言,这比任何纸面参数都更有说服力。

芯片路线图:960提前就绪,970/980排期明确​

华为还更新了昇腾芯片的推进节奏:

  • 昇腾960DT较原计划提前三个季度就绪;
  • 昇腾960PR提前一个季度就绪;
  • 2028年推出昇腾970,2029年推出昇腾980。

"提前就绪"在当前的供应链环境下格外难得——在全球先进制造资源紧张、HBM紧缺的背景下,按时甚至提前交付,本身就是工程与供应链能力的体现。而970/980排期明确到年份,则给生态伙伴与客户提供了可规划的长期预期。

CANN全面开源:生态数据盘点​

软件生态方面,昇腾的进展可以用一组数据概括——CANN已全面开源:

  • 外部开发者占比61%,月活跃开发者超5200名;
  • 40+模型实现原生训练;
  • 支持PyTorch、Triton、vLLM、veRL等90+开源项目;
  • 成为PyTorch官网首个中国算力平台。

其中"PyTorch官网首个中国算力平台"具有标志性意义:主流框架的原生适配,意味着开发者迁移成本大幅降低,而61%的外部开发者占比说明社区已经超出华为体系自身,形成外部贡献的正循环。

全栈协同:TaiShan 950与OceanStor M900​

硬件侧的配套升级同样值得关注。TaiShan 950超节点完成升级:支持4096节点、256TB统一内存池——统一内存池让CPU侧内存资源可以按需调度,与超节点的算力规模相匹配。存储侧,OceanStor M900上下文内存存储提供PB级KV Cache能力,直击大模型推理场景的上下文缓存需求:推理热门场景下,KV Cache的存取效率直接决定吞吐与首字延迟。

芯片(昇腾950/960)、CPU(TaiShan 950)、存储(OceanStor M900)、软件栈(CANN)四层同步演进,华为走的是典型的全栈协同路线。

小结​

从昇腾950智算集群云服务"9月30日国内、11月30日全球"的商用时间表,到昇腾960超节点"4096卡、8 EFLOPS FP8、16 EFLOPS FP4、1PB HBM、5500个Hi-ONE光引擎"的规格突破,再到昇腾950超节点规模商用1000多套、成为国内唯一训练出SOTA模型的超节点,以及CANN全面开源、外部开发者占比61%的生态进展,华为正以"芯片-超节点-云服务-开源生态"的全栈节奏推进昇腾路线图。昇腾970(2028)、昇腾980(2029)的排期已经明确——昇腾的追赶不再只是单点突破,而是体系化的持续推进。

平头哥公布倚天CPU路线图:倚天720/730明年推出,730首次全自研微架构

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

在Agentic AI重塑算力需求结构的当下,平头哥首次公开倚天服务器CPU发展蓝图——全自研微架构与ICN总线直连,是这份路线图最值得关注的两个关键词。

云栖大会:倚天蓝图首次公开​

2026年9月22日的云栖大会上,平头哥首次公开倚天系列服务器CPU的发展蓝图:2027年将推出倚天720与倚天730两款服务器CPU。这是平头哥第一次以路线图的形式,系统性地向外界展示倚天CPU的演进节奏——从"发布单点产品"到"公布多代路线",意味着倚天系列的研发与规划已经形成了清晰的代际滚动机制。

型号推出时间核心亮点
倚天710已商用现役主力,后续产品的性能基准
倚天7202027年单核性能、核密度与能效全面提升
倚天7302027年首次基于平头哥全自研CPU微架构设计,单核SPECint2017/GHz性能最高提升至倚天710的1.4倍
倚天750时间未公开基于第二代自研核,支持平头哥自研ICN片间互联总线协议

倚天720与倚天730:差异化分工​

两款2027年的新品各有侧重。倚天720走的是"全面均衡"路线:单核性能、核密度与能效三项指标同步提升,面向通用算力场景的规模化部署——在数据中心机柜功率与空间约束日益收紧的背景下,核密度与能效的提升直接决定了单位机柜可承载的算力上限。

倚天730则是更具突破意义的一代:它首次基于平头哥全自研CPU微架构设计,单核SPECint2017/GHz性能最高提升至倚天710的1.4倍。SPECint2017/GHz衡量的是单位频率下的整数性能(即IPC水平),1.4倍意味着微架构层面的显著优化,而非单纯依靠频率或制程红利。从"基于授权架构"到"全自研微架构",这是服务器CPU自研道路上最关键的一次跨越——它决定了后续每一代产品能否摆脱外部授权的节奏约束。

ICN总线:CPU与AI芯片的直连时代​

路线图中另一个关键角色是ICN片间互联总线协议。根据蓝图,基于第二代自研核的倚天750将支持平头哥自研的ICN总线协议,倚天CPU与真武AI芯片之间可通过ICN总线直接互联,进一步提升CPU与AI芯片的协同效率。

这一设计直指传统架构的痛点:在现有体系中,CPU与AI加速卡之间通常通过PCIe等通用互联通信,带宽与延迟都存在损耗,而这些损耗恰恰发生在数据预处理、梯度同步、通信协同等高频环节。ICN总线让CPU与AI芯片"原生对话",相当于把CPU纳入AI集群的整体互联拓扑,而非让它们停留在AI芯片的"外围"。

Agentic AI时代的CPU需求分化​

平头哥此时公布CPU路线图,并非偶然。其背景是Agentic AI正在驱动CPU需求分化:智能体应用大规模兴起后,CPU不再是AI服务器里"配平"的角色——Agent的调度、编排、数据处理与轻量推理,对CPU的核密度、能效与协同能力都提出了新要求。通用CPU与AI算力的配比、互联方式,都在被重新设计。

同期发布的真武V900构成了这套蓝图的全栈拼图:216GB显存、1200GB/s片间互联、支持50万卡集群。叠加倚天CPU经ICN总线直连的能力,阿里云正在构建"AI芯片+CPU+网络"的全栈算力体系——芯片自研、互联自研、CPU自研,三层能力的耦合度越高,系统的整体效率上限就越高。

小结​

倚天720/730定档2027年、倚天730首次采用全自研微架构、单核SPECint2017/GHz性能最高提升至倚天710的1.4倍,再加上ICN总线与真武AI芯片直连的规划、真武V900(216GB显存、1200GB/s片间互联、50万卡集群)的全栈拼图,平头哥给出了一条清晰且野心不小的CPU自研路线。在Agentic AI驱动的算力变革中,"AI芯片+CPU+网络"的全栈协同能力,或将成为云厂商竞争的下一个分水岭。

HBM短缺引爆国产AI芯片涨价潮:昇腾950DT报价超25万元、寒武纪690涨20%-30%

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

据路透社报道,出口管制推高HBM成本,华为、寒武纪等国产AI芯片厂商集体上调价格——正如戴尔CEO所言,"比涨价更糟的是没货"。

路透社爆料:三位知情人士描绘的涨价全景​

据路透社2026年9月10日援引三位知情人士的报道,因出口管制导致HBM成本飙升,华为、寒武纪等中国AI芯片厂商已大幅上调现有及下一代AI处理器的价格。这不是单一产品的调价,而是一轮覆盖多代产品线的系统性涨价。

产品年初价格当前价格涨幅
华为昇腾950DT加速卡未公开指示性价格25万元人民币以上(约37255美元)两个月内报价最多上涨50%
华为昇腾950PR约6万元/单卡突破8万元约30%
华为昇腾910C板卡(老款)约9万元11万元以上—
寒武纪下一代芯片(暂称690)未公开未公开较两个月前上涨20%-30%

其中最引人注目的是昇腾950DT:其指示性价格已调高至25万元人民币以上(约37255美元),两个月内报价最多上涨50%。年初单卡约6万元的昇腾950PR,现已突破8万元;老款昇腾910C板卡也从年初的约9万元涨至11万元以上——连上一代产品都在涨价,说明短缺是全方位的,而非某一型号的局部现象。

寒武纪官方回应与厂商动态​

在涨价消息流传之际,寒武纪董秘办作出回应:"不要听信市场消息,一切以官方公告为准。"这一表态既未证实也未否认。据上述报道,寒武纪下一代芯片(暂称690)已重新定价,较两个月前上涨20%-30%。

与此同时,涨价并非华为与寒武纪的"专属":沐曦、天数智芯亦有类似的涨价动作。也就是说,这轮价格上行已经从头部厂商扩散至更多国产AI芯片公司,成为行业性现象。对采购方而言,"再等等看会不会降"的观望策略,正在面临价格持续上行的反向风险。

涨价根源:HBM短缺与出口管制双重挤压​

这轮涨价的逻辑链条并不复杂,可以拆成三层:

  1. 需求侧:AI算力需求持续爆发,国产AI芯片订单饱满,供不应求是常态;
  2. 供给侧:全球HBM持续紧缺,高带宽显存作为AI加速卡最关键的物料,产能增量远远跟不上需求增量;
  3. 成本侧:出口限制卡住了国产芯片的上游供应,HBM获取成本大幅飙升,直接推高单卡物料成本。

上游成本抬升叠加供不应求,价格上调几乎是必然结果。对厂商而言,涨价既是转嫁成本的被动选择,也是在新的供需格局下重新校准产品定价的主动机会——毕竟在"有货就能卖掉"的市场里,定价权掌握在供给方手中。

戴尔CEO的警告:2027年可能更严重​

需求侧的信号同样值得警惕。戴尔CEO在高盛大会上表态:半导体结构性短缺短期难以缓解,2027年可能更严重;并且留下一句点睛之语——"比涨价更糟的是没货"。

这句话道破了当前AI算力市场的真实状态:价格上行尚可通过预算调整来消化,而拿不到货则直接卡死算力建设进度,延误的是整个AI战略的落地节奏。HBM作为AI加速卡的瓶颈物料,其短缺正在向上传导为加速卡、服务器乃至智算中心建设层面的系统性不确定性。

对采购决策的影响​

对于正在规划AI算力建设的企业来说,这轮涨价潮至少意味着三件事:

  • 预算规划要留弹性:单卡成本模型需要动态更新,参考昇腾950PR两个月上涨约30%的斜率,静态预算很容易失真;
  • 交期比价格更关键:昇腾910C这类老款产品都在涨价,说明现货稀缺,早锁定意味着早交付、早形成算力;
  • 多供应商组合价值凸显:华为、寒武纪、沐曦、天数智芯全线涨价的环境下,国产+海外、多品牌组合的采购策略更有抗风险能力。

小结​

HBM短缺与出口管制双重压力下,国产AI芯片正在经历一轮罕见的全线上调:华为昇腾950DT报价突破25万元(约37255美元)、两个月最多涨50%,昇腾950PR突破8万元,昇腾910C板卡涨至11万元以上,寒武纪下一代芯片690较两个月前上涨20%-30%,沐曦、天数智芯跟进调价。戴尔CEO"2027年可能更严重"的判断提示我们:这场短缺或许不是短期波动,而是未来数年的行业常态。对采购方而言,与其等待价格回落,不如尽早锁定供货。

燧原科技登陆科创板:开盘暴涨188%、市值1764亿元,国产AI芯片资本化再下一城

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

开盘暴涨188.37%、市值1764.44亿元——燧原科技的科创板首秀,为国产AI芯片的资本化浪潮再添一把火。

首日表现:高开高走​

2026年9月11日,上海燧原科技股份有限公司正式在上海证券交易所科创板挂牌上市,股票代码688801.SH。开盘价410元/股,较发行价暴涨188.37%,市值达到1764.44亿元;盘中股价最高触及468元/股,涨幅超过229%。

对于一家AI芯片公司而言,这样的首日表现并不常见。它反映的是二级市场对国产AI算力标的的稀缺性定价:在AI算力需求爆发、国产替代加速的双重叙事下,能够提供训练+推理完整产品线的芯片公司,几乎是科创板最炙手可热的资产类别。

指标数值
上市日期2026年9月11日
股票代码688801.SH
上市板块上交所科创板
开盘价410元/股
开盘涨幅188.37%
盘中最高价468元/股(涨幅超229%)
上市初期市值1764.44亿元
重要股东腾讯(浮盈超300亿元)

腾讯作为燧原科技的重要股东,在这场上市中浮盈超过300亿元。从早期一路陪跑到科创板敲钟,腾讯对燧原的持续投入,是互联网大厂深度绑定国产AI芯片公司的典型案例,也印证了一级市场对国产算力赛道的长期押注。

产品底色:云燧训练/推理卡与集群方案​

资本故事之外,燧原的产品线是其估值的底色。燧原科技的核心产品围绕"邃思"DTU芯片展开,基于该芯片打造云燧系列训练加速卡与推理加速卡,并延伸出数据中心级集群方案,覆盖从单卡到大规模部署的完整需求链条。

以燧原T21为例,该卡搭载64GB HBM2E显存,面向大模型时代的显存密集型负载。在HBM容量与带宽成为AI加速卡竞争焦点的当下,大容量HBM配置是衡量产品竞争力的硬指标之一。而集群方案的完整度——从单卡、整机到组网调度——则决定了芯片公司能否真正承接云厂商与行业客户的数据中心级订单。

国产AI芯片的集体资本化​

燧原上市并非孤立事件,而是国产AI芯片企业批量登陆资本市场的最新一站。在此之前,板块格局已经初步成形:

公司上市地/代码
寒武纪科创板
摩尔线程科创板
沐曦科创板(688802.SH)
天数智芯港股(09903.HK)
燧原科技科创板(688801.SH,2026年9月11日)

从训练芯片到推理芯片,从GPU路线到GPGPU、DTU等多技术路线,国产AI芯片公司正在以"科创板为主阵地、港股为补充"的格局完成集体资本化。燧原开盘188%的涨幅,某种程度上是市场对整个板块稀缺性与成长性的集中定价——每一个新上市标的,都在为后来者校准估值坐标。

"融资-流片-上市-再投入"的飞轮​

AI芯片是典型的重资产、长周期行业:一次先进制程流片动辄数亿美元级投入(行业内公认的成本结构),大规模量产还需要持续的产能保障与人员扩张。没有持续的资本供给,技术追赶很难维持节奏。

此番IPO募资,燧原将投向研发与产能两个方向:前者保证下一代芯片的技术迭代与追平能力,后者保证规模交付能力。由此,国产AI芯片行业正在形成一个清晰的飞轮:

  1. 融资:一级市场资金支撑芯片流片与团队建设;
  2. 流片与量产:产品落地,进入云厂商与行业客户供应链;
  3. 上市:借助资本市场完成价值发现与再融资通道建设;
  4. 再投入:募资投向下一代研发与产能,进一步缩小与海外厂商的差距。

寒武纪、摩尔线程、沐曦、天数智芯与燧原的接连上市,让这个飞轮转得越来越快。资本市场的持续输血,正在成为国产AI芯片追赶进程中不可或缺的助推器。

小结​

燧原科技科创板首日开盘暴涨188.37%、市值1764.44亿元、盘中最高涨幅超229%,腾讯浮盈超300亿元——这既是资本市场对国产AI芯片稀缺标的的热烈回应,也是"融资-流片-上市-再投入"产业飞轮加速运转的缩影。在HBM紧缺与AI算力需求爆发的双重背景下,国产AI芯片的资本化窗口仍在敞开。后续燧原能否将高估值转化为持续的营收与利润,将是检验这场资本盛宴成色的关键。

高通与AWS达成40亿美元AI联盟:多代定制AI芯片+1.6T光互联

· 6 min read
Industry Research Team

当全球最大云计算服务商选择与一家手机SoC巨头联手开发定制AI芯片,数据中心算力市场的竞争逻辑正在被改写。

一场跨多代的战略牵手​

当地时间2026年9月8日,高通技术公司与亚马逊AWS正式宣布达成一项跨多代产品的战略合作。双方将围绕大规模AI数据中心展开两个方向的深度协同:其一是联合开发多代定制AI芯片,其二是共同推进高速光互联解决方案,其中明确包含1.6T光连接方案。

这份协议最值得注意的不是"合作"本身,而是"跨多代"三个字。云厂商与芯片供应商之间的合作,通常以单颗芯片的流片项目为单位;而跨多代的框架式合作,意味着双方在芯片定义、迭代节奏、互联演进路线上都建立了长期协同机制。对高通而言,这是其在数据中心AI芯片市场战略布局上获得的、来自全球最大云计算服务商的关键背书。

合作要点一览​

合作维度具体内容
合作双方高通技术公司 × 亚马逊AWS
宣布时间当地时间2026年9月8日
合作性质跨多代产品的战略合作
定制芯片面向大规模AI数据中心联合开发多代定制AI芯片
光互联联合推进高速光互联解决方案,包含1.6T光连接方案

芯片与光互联并举,是这份协议的另一个信号。在超大规模AI集群中,互联带宽早已成为与算力同等重要的瓶颈,1.6T光连接代表的正是下一代集群网络的带宽量级。芯片设计能力与光互联能力的组合输出,让这桩合作超出了单纯的"定制ASIC"范畴。

高通的第二次冲锋​

对高通而言,数据中心并不陌生,但此前的探索主要集中在推理侧。高通此前已推出AI100、AI200、AI250等推理加速卡产品线,试图将自己在低功耗计算、SoC集成上的多年积累迁移到数据中心场景。

产品线定位具体规格
AI100推理加速卡未公开
AI200推理加速卡未公开
AI250推理加速卡未公开

从手机SoC转向数据中心AI芯片,是高通的第二次冲锋。第一次冲锋(AI100/AI200/AI250推理卡)走的是标准产品路线;而这一次的不同之处在于:它不再只是卖标准推理卡,而是直接切入头部云厂商的定制芯片供应链——这恰恰是博通(Broadcom)、Marvell等定制芯片玩家长期占据、且利润丰厚的位置。

这个转变的产业逻辑并不难理解。AI推理需求的爆发让云厂商迫切需要"够用、便宜、可定制"的算力方案,而高通在低功耗设计、异构集成上的基因,恰好与推理场景的诉求契合。借助AWS这个锚点客户,高通有望把定制芯片业务从"试水"升级为"主业"。

AWS的双轨算力战略​

AWS是业内少数坚持自研芯片路线的云计算巨头。其Annapurna Labs团队打造了Trainium训练芯片与Inferentia推理芯片两条自研产品线,支撑起自家大规模算力底座,也是AWS在算力成本上对抗NVIDIA溢价的核心筹码。

此番与高通合作,可以视为AWS在"自研 + 外部定制"双轨战略上的进一步加码:

  • 自研线:Trainium/Inferentia保证核心架构可控与成本优化;
  • 外部定制线:引入高通等外部设计力量,扩充设计带宽与供应链弹性,应对爆发式的AI算力需求。

两条腿走路的本质是风险对冲:自研芯片的迭代周期难以无限压缩,而外部定制伙伴可以在关键代际上补充产能与设计资源。全球最大云厂商选择加码双轨,本身就说明单一供给模式已经无法满足AI算力的需求曲线。

对行业格局的影响​

这笔合作最直接冲击的,是数据中心定制芯片与互联方案的既有格局:

  • 对NVIDIA:头部云厂商在旗舰GPU之外扩充定制AI芯片选项,算力采购组合将更加多元,NVIDIA在数据中心市场的议价空间面临新的边际压力;
  • 对Marvell、博通:高通携AWS背书进入定制芯片赛道,定制ASIC设计服务的竞争者又多了一家重量级玩家,客户资源与设计人才的争夺将更激烈;
  • 对光互联生态:1.6T光连接的联合推进,意味着超大规模集群的互联带宽军备竞赛继续提速,光模块、光引擎、CPO/NPO相关供应链都将受益于这一代际切换。

更长远地看,"云厂商深度参与芯片定义"正在成为AI基础设施的主流范式。当芯片规格越来越贴近具体业务负载,通用GPU与定制ASIC之间的边界会被不断重画。

小结​

高通与AWS的跨多代合作,是"云厂商定制芯片"趋势下的标志性事件:手机SoC巨头以定制芯片+1.6T光互联的组合拳向数据中心发起第二次冲锋,全球最大云厂商则以"自研+外部定制"双轨强化供应链弹性。对NVIDIA、Marvell、博通而言,一个新的强敌已经入场;对整个AI基础设施行业而言,竞争的维度正在从"单点芯片性能"转向"芯片+互联+云"的全栈博弈。这是2026年下半年最值得持续跟踪的合作之一。

NVIDIA's China Share Crashes to 8% as Ascend Rises to 50%: The Dramatic Reshuffle of China's AI Compute Market in a September Report

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

This article is based on market analysis published by Bloomberg Intelligence and Bernstein in September 2026 and public reporting; market share and revenue figures are analyst estimates, not official disclosures.

On September 28, two Wall Street reports simultaneously painted a dramatic picture: the balance of market share in China's AI compute market completed an almost total flip within 12 months.

1. The Share Flip: 40% to 8%, Ascend to 50%​

Bernstein's latest forecast:

  • NVIDIA's share of the China AI chip market will fall from about 40% to about 8% by the end of this year
  • Huawei Ascend rises to nearly 50%
  • The immediate trigger: China's September ban on new H20 orders from NVIDIA, which shut the last channel for NVIDIA's return to the Chinese market
  • ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have all placed large Ascend orders

On the timeline, this was not a sudden shock but the cumulative result of three years of tightening export controls: NVIDIA's share of the China AI chip market once peaked at 95%; as high-end chips were cut off, Chinese hyperscale cloud providers pivoted wholesale to Huawei and domestic alternatives. Even when Washington allowed H200 sales to China in January 2026, the gears of that shift had already meshed — there was no going back.

2. Ascend 950PR: The "Chinese H200" in Analysts' Eyes​

What underpins this share data is product strength itself:

  • The Ascend 950PR entered mass production in March this year, with FP4 compute of up to 2 PFLOPS and 128GB of domestic HBM
  • Analysts rate it as roughly on par with the NVIDIA H200
  • Huawei's AI chip revenue is expected to reach $12 billion this year, up 60% from $7.5 billion in 2025

For the full specifications of the 950 series, see our earlier in-depth articles: Ascend 950PR/950DT Dual-Configuration Analysis and Ascend 960 Official Launch — the 960 was ready three quarters ahead of schedule, confirming a one-generation-per-year cadence.

3. The Model Side: Chinese Open Models Take the OpenRouter Token Pie​

While chip shares flipped, the model usage data is equally striking (OpenRouter platform statistics):

MetricData
DeepSeek token share (June)16.3%, surpassing Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI individually to rank first
Combined token share of Chinese open-weight models (May)About 61% (DeepSeek, Qwen, MiniMax, Tencent Hunyuan, etc.)
Weekly token consumption of Chinese modelsAbout 18 trillion, versus about 5.5 trillion for US models — a gap of more than 3x, with the overtake completed within a year
China-US frontier model performance gap (June)Narrowed to 6%, a historic low (9% in May)

Compute and models form a positive feedback loop: cards that cannot be bought force domestic compute to scale up; scaled-up domestic compute produces cheap tokens; and cheap tokens let Chinese open-source models swallow the bulk of global inference traffic.

4. But the Stock Market Isn't Buying It​

Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out a contradiction in the same period: the valuation discount of the China Tech 8 relative to the US Magnificent Seven has widened to more than 50%, the widest of the year, and BI believes only a "true AI breakthrough" can close it. Year-to-date stock performance: Alibaba about -7%, Tencent about -23%, while US AI infrastructure leaders broadly gained more than 15%.

There are two readings of this divergence: either the market is underestimating China's AI fundamentals, or earnings execution (Alibaba's EPS missed expectations by 17.3% last quarter, Baidu's by 36%) has dragged down the delivery of the AI narrative. For industry observers, the notable point is: the compute-side data (share, revenue, shipments) has moved ahead, while application-side monetization is still on the way.

5. Three Takeaways for Compute Buyers​

  1. For deployments in China, the Ascend ecosystem is already the default option. The cost of migrating from CUDA to CANN is one-time, while supply uncertainty is persistent; after the September ban, there is no compliant path to procuring new NVIDIA cards in the Chinese market.
  2. Domestic compute "matching the H200" is a watershed. The implicit assumption of domestic substitution used to be "discounted performance, discounted price"; when single-card performance catches up to the H200 generation, procurement decisions return to pure TCO and supply-security calculations — we recommend using the TCO Calculator to put electricity, depreciation, and utilization into the same table.
  3. The token cost curve determines the application landscape. Chinese models' 61% share of OpenRouter tokens shows that the chain of compute self-sufficiency leading to token price drops leading to application prosperity has completed its first leg; the next question is whether inference costs can keep falling.

Summary​

From 40% to 8% is not a slogan but a market reshuffle driven jointly by the ban, product strength, and the model ecosystem. For the Chinese market, the mass-production cadence of Ascend 950/960 and the maturity of the CANN ecosystem will determine whether this share can be held; for the global market, the combination of China's compute "internal circulation + open-source models going overseas" is rewriting the geographic distribution of inference traffic.

(Market share and revenue forecasts come from Bernstein / Bloomberg Intelligence analyst reports; actual figures are subject to each company's financial reports.)

Intelligent Compute to Hit 9,800 EFLOPS by 2030: Five Hard Targets in the ICT Industry "15th Five-Year" Plan

· 6 min read
Industry Research Team

This article is based on the MIIT "15th Five-Year" Plan for ICT Industry Development (issued in September 2026) and official interpretations by the People's Post and Telegraph News, The Paper, Huaxia Times, and other outlets.

In early September, the MIIT issued the "15th Five-Year" Plan for ICT Industry Development, drawing a roadmap for the ICT industry over the next five years with 13 major indicators and 26 key tasks. For the AI compute industry, this is the most substantive policy document — we have picked out five hard targets and break down their industry implications one by one.

Target 1: Intelligent Compute from 1,590 to 9,800 EFLOPS, More Than 5x Growth in Five Years​

This is the standout number in the entire plan. For reference:

  • As of the end of June 2026, national intelligent compute capacity had reached 2,185 EFLOPS, up 177% year over year — the first half alone overshot the year-end 2025 target (1,590 EFLOPS)
  • The country has built 42 10,000-card-class intelligent computing clusters; in July 2026, the first fully domestic 100,000-card-class AI compute cluster, the Sugon 8000, was completed in Zhengzhou
  • Huawei's rotating chairman Wang Tao's assessment: super-node clusters of more than 100,000 cards will become basic configuration by 2027

Going from 2,185 to 9,800 means that over the next four years the country must build 3.5 times the current installed base of intelligent computing facilities. The plan also calls for "orderly deployment of 10,000-card, 100,000-card and larger intelligent computing clusters" and "stepping up efforts to adapt domestic compute chips" — this is the most certain demand base for domestic AI chips over the next five years.

Target 2: Cumulative Information Infrastructure Investment of RMB 3.8 Trillion​

Some have compared this with the "14th Five-Year" figure of RMB 3.7 trillion and concluded that "investment has peaked." Official interpretations explicitly reject this claim: incremental capital is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality-and-efficiency gains," precisely targeted at intelligent computing infrastructure, 10G optical networks, 6G, and other new tracks. The industry chain pull effect is changing accordingly — AI servers, high-speed optical interconnects, domestic compute chips, and new smart terminals were named as beneficiaries across the whole chain.

Target 3: PUE of New Large Compute Facilities Reduced Below 1.2​

At the end of the "14th Five-Year" period this figure was 1.25, and it must fall another 0.05 within five years — it doesn't sound like much, but with AI servers running at high load year-round and per-rack power density generally exceeding 20kW, every point of PUE reduction is a hard fight. The technical path laid out in the plan is very clear: liquid cooling.

  • The "15th Five-Year" Plan for ICT Industry Development: guide compute facilities to adopt high-efficiency energy-saving equipment and advanced technologies such as liquid cooling
  • The "15th Five-Year" Plan for Electronic Information Manufacturing Development (jointly issued by the MIIT and the NDRC on September 15): lists liquid cooling alongside high-bandwidth memory pooling and all-optical switching as key technologies to be broken through

Industry-side data confirms the trend: according to Omdia, liquid cooling's share of the global data center cooling market climbed from about 20% in 2024 to about 37% in 2025, with penetration expected to exceed 45% by 2029. The ceiling on compute expansion is shifting from chip supply to power supply, and the energy-efficiency constraint of "compute up, energy down" will be the norm for the next five years.

Target 4: Advanced Storage Capacity of 1,700 EB, More Than 2x Growth​

While intelligent compute grows 5x, advanced storage grows more than 2x — storage-compute coordination is given equal weight. The logic: training checkpoints for large models, and the intermediate states and contextual memory of agent inference, are all stored in layers within high-performance storage. As of the end of June, national storage capacity totaled about 2,021 EB, of which advanced storage accounted for about 32%; the 1,700 EB advanced storage target for 2030 means structural upgrading matters more than total-volume growth.

A direct implication for chip selection: KV cache and long context are eating the memory budget — when evaluating AI servers, memory capacity and memory bandwidth should carry more weight than peak compute.

Target 5: The Agent Interconnection Network Enters the Plan for the First Time​

This is the most forward-looking part of the plan: the "agent interconnection network" gets its own dedicated column, deploying four areas of work — building an agent network identifier system, accelerating the construction and application of agent network infrastructure, promoting global interconnection, and establishing a space governance system. It also explicitly states "launching 6G commercial use in a timely manner."

As AI shifts from "applications for people" to "agent infrastructure," the role of the communications network upgrades from connecting people to connecting agents — providing a national-level narrative for the distributed deployment of inference compute (edge inference, compute scheduling).

Three Judgments for Compute Practitioners​

JudgmentBasis
Domestic compute demand is highly certainThe plan explicitly states "stepping up efforts to adapt domestic compute chips" + the 100,000-card cluster build cycle has begun
Energy-efficiency targets become hard siting constraintsPUE below 1.2 + liquid cooling named as a key technology; high-density liquid cooling solutions take priority
Inference compute sinks to the edge on demand"Deploy inference compute facilities as needed for scenarios"; edge and regional compute centers enjoy a policy window

Under a 5x compute expansion target, what has always been scarce is not planning but chips, power, and delivery capability. For buyers, the supply window remains tight; for solution selection, we recommend using the TCO Calculator to convert PUE differences into electricity costs — the gap between 1.25 and 1.2 amounts to tens of millions on the electricity bill of a 10,000-card cluster.

Summary​

The "15th Five-Year" Plan writes intelligent compute into a national-level project: 5x compute, 2x storage, RMB 3.8 trillion in investment, PUE 1.2, and the agent internet. Looking back five years from now, the wave of domestic 100,000-card clusters in the second half of 2026 may well prove to be the starting point of this curve.

(Plan data is cited from MIIT documents and official media interpretations; market data is cited from statistics by CAICT, Omdia, and other institutions.)

Groq 3 LPX Enters Full Mass Production: Samsung 4nm Foundry, 315 PFLOPS FP8 per Rack — NVIDIA Turns the LPU into the Seventh Chip of Vera Rubin

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

This article is based on NVIDIA official product pages, the March 2026 GTC architecture blog, and third-party benchmark data; performance figures are vendor architecture comparisons, and actual gains should be verified with your own tests.

NVIDIA has confirmed that Groq 3 LPX — the "seventh chip" of the Vera Rubin platform — has entered full mass production, manufactured at Samsung's Pyeongtaek campus. This is the first time the deal has landed in the form of production silicon since December 2025, when NVIDIA spent roughly $20 billion to obtain a non-exclusive IP license to Groq plus its core engineering team.

For the inference hardware landscape, this is a paradigm-level event: for the first time, NVIDIA has incorporated a "specialized inference architecture defined by someone else" into its own flagship platform — and not as an add-on sale, but as deep co-design.

1. The Groq 3 LPU Chip and the LPX Rack: Specs at a Glance​

Single Groq 3 LPU (4nm, Samsung foundry):

ItemValue
Compiler-managed on-chip SRAM500 MB
SRAM bandwidth150 TB/s
Chip-to-chip scale-up bandwidth2.5 TB/s (96 chip-to-chip links, 112 Gbps each)

A single LPX rack (32 1U liquid-cooled trays, 8 LPUs per tray):

ItemValue
Total LPUs256
FP8 compute315 PFLOPS
Total on-chip SRAM128 GB
Aggregate SRAM bandwidth40 PB/s
In-rack scale-up bandwidth640 TB/s
DDR5 memory12 TB (hosting large model weights)

The 500 MB of SRAM per LPU may not look like much, but multiplied by 256 LPUs and stacked with 40 PB/s of aggregate bandwidth, it forms the physical foundation of "deterministic low-latency decoding" — the LPU's design philosophy is precisely to use compiler static scheduling of on-chip SRAM to completely eliminate memory-fetch stalls during the inference decoding phase, which is exactly the most typical bottleneck of GPU inference.

2. AFD: Attention and FFN Split Up, GPU and LPU Each Do Their Own Job​

LPX does not replace the GPU; instead, it forms a heterogeneous system with Vera Rubin NVL72, centered on AFD (Attention-FFN Disaggregation):

  1. Rubin GPUs handle prefill and attention — building the KV cache over large contexts and executing attention layers, consuming HBM capacity and high throughput;
  2. Groq 3 LPUs handle FFN / MoE expert-layer decoding — latency-sensitive and pattern-predictable, exactly the home turf of deterministic SRAM scheduling;
  3. Intermediate activations are exchanged between the two engines token by token, orchestrated and routed by NVIDIA Dynamo: the GPU computes every attention layer, the LPU computes every feed-forward layer, jointly producing each output token.

The logic of this division of labor is clear: agentic AI applications can consume 15x the tokens of traditional AI applications, and the bottleneck shifts from "can it finish computing" to "can it keep emitting tokens at stable low latency." Let the big HBM container run attention, and let the deterministic SRAM engine run decode — each plays to its strengths.

3. Measured Results and Official Figures​

  • Third-party benchmarks (Artificial Analysis): with Gemma 4 31B at a 100K token context, LPX output reaches roughly 3400 tokens/s — inter-token intervals below 1 millisecond, a qualitative leap in interactivity for long-context agentic scenarios
  • Official architecture comparisons: with LPX added, Vera Rubin NVL72 achieves up to 35x higher throughput per megawatt on trillion-parameter models; up to 10x more revenue opportunity per watt in "high-value token" scenarios
  • Launch customers: Nebius is the first to deploy LPX racks to expand its token capacity; CoreWeave already connects Vera Rubin racks in production with Spectrum-X Multiplane

It must be emphasized: the 35x/10x figures are architecture comparisons at specific high-interaction operating points, not universal conclusions. For training, high-throughput batch inference, and workloads that need CUDA ecosystem flexibility, the GPU remains the right answer; LPX's home turf is scenarios where "single-user interactive latency is the product" — agent loops, real-time coding assistants, long-context conversations.

4. Three Industry Signals​

1. Specialized inference chips get absorbed, not opposed. The old narrative of the LPU as a "GPU challenger" has become part of Vera Rubin. The endgame for inference hardware may not be one architecture winning, but the heterogeneous combination of "GPU + specialized decoding engines" becoming the standard. For other inference chip startups (Cerebras, Etched, etc.), this is both proof that the ceiling has risen and a warning: get integrated or find differentiation.

2. Samsung foundry lands a high-end AI order. Against the backdrop of TSMC's near-monopoly on AI main chips, Samsung 4nm taking on LPX mass production is highly significant — combined with Tesla's earlier AI6 2nm order, Samsung foundry has a shot at returning to full-year profitability in 2027.

3. Inference economics enters the "priced per MW" era. When vendors start telling their story with tokens/MW and revenue per watt, the core KPI of compute selection has completely shifted from peak compute (TFLOPS) to token output per unit of energy. This is consistent with the power-and-electricity cost model built into our TCO Calculator: the chip with the best-looking peak specs is not necessarily the chip with the lowest cost per token.

Summary​

Groq 3 LPX mass production marks the arrival of a heterogeneous era for inference hardware: "GPUs manage throughput, LPUs manage latency." For teams currently selecting inference clusters, the recommendation is to evaluate workloads separately: keep batch offline inference on GPUs, and separately calculate the unit cost of LPX-class solutions for interactive long-context agents. If in doubt, run the 3-year total cost of ownership of both architectures through the TCO Calculator before deciding.

(Performance data in this article comes from NVIDIA official architecture comparisons and Artificial Analysis third-party benchmarks; for actual deployments, please rely on your own testing.)

GPU Rental Rates Climb Again: Nebius Raises H100/B200 On-Demand Prices About 20% From October, and the Build-vs-Rent Balance Is Shifting

· 5 min read
Industry Research Team

According to ZhiXun (media) reporting in late September, Nebius announced that on-demand rates for H100 / H200 / B200 will rise by an average of about 20% starting October 1. The same month, Cailian Press reported that as of August 11 CoreWeave's contracted power had grown to 4.2 GW and that it would "keep signing new compute at higher prices". This is the Nth consecutive price increase in the rental market this AI cycle — and for buyers, the TCO balance between building and renting is shifting. This article works through the math using the site's TCO calculator methodology.


1. Three Forces Behind the Price Hikes​

  • Exploding agentic inference demand: from MLPerf v6.1 to SemiAnalysis AgentX, agentic workloads have become the main engine of inference growth — token consumption is orders of magnitude beyond chat scenarios, and inference compute has gone from "enough" to "never enough";
  • Supply premium on the new platform generation: Vera Rubin NVL72 has debuted on CoreWeave, and early-ramp pricing on new platforms is naturally elevated — which also raises the anchor for renewal prices on the previous generation (H100/H200/B200);
  • Power has become a hard constraint: CoreWeave's 4.2GW of contracted power shows the data center supply bottleneck has shifted from GPUs to power and racks; enterprises holding power contracts have no reason to cut prices.

2. What a 20% Rent Increase Means for TCO​

The site's TCO calculator splits total cost of ownership into five parts: purchase + energy + operations + network + discounting. Rent increases don't enter that model directly, but they change the "rental baseline" — the opportunity cost a build option must beat:

ScenarioBefore 20% Rent HikeAfter 20% Hike
Short-term elastic workloads (under 1 year)Renting winsRenting still wins (build deployment lead times can't catch up)
Steady inference workloads (2-3 years)Crossover zoneBuild starts to win (opportunity cost rises)
Training clusters (3 years+)Build winsBuild's advantage widens

Rules of thumb:

  • For workloads running 24/7 at full load for 2 years or more, a 20% rent increase is usually enough for building (even at a 1.5x purchase premium and with a PUE 1.3 energy model) to overtake renting within 30 months;
  • Tidal workloads (daytime peaks, idle nights) should still rent — under the assumption that a build pays a continuous 15% idle power draw, building almost never breaks even below roughly 50% utilization;
  • A hybrid strategy (owned baseline + rented peaks) is least sensitive to rent increases and is the robust play in the current interest-rate and power-price environment.

You can re-derive these conclusions in the TCO calculator: enter the "cloud rental unit price" at +20% and compare scenarios across purchase price, electricity price, and PUE. The default discount rate is 8%; purchase costs are not discounted, and annual electricity is discounted by 1.08^-y.

3. Pricing Implications for Domestic Compute​

Rent increases have a layer of impact on domestic AI chip purchasing decisions that is easy to overlook:

  • The rental market for domestic chips is not yet mature: compute from Ascend / Cambricon / Moore Threads is delivered mostly as appliances, full racks, and intelligent computing center allocations; public on-demand rental prices are scarce — so procurement comparisons naturally lean toward "build / full-system" models;
  • Relative TCO shift: a 20% NVIDIA rent increase raises the "relative attractiveness" of every domestic alternative, especially for inference workloads (actual market transaction prices for 910C / 950PR / P800 on the primary market are not public, but the full-system price gap versus dollar-priced cards is widening);
  • Supply cadence: DeepSeek betting on Ascend training and rumors of 160,000-unit 950DT purchases — top demand eats capacity first, and queue times for later buyers are lengthening. Deciding early has value in itself.

4. Takeaways​

  • Nebius raises H100/H200/B200 on-demand rates +20% from October; CoreWeave's contracted power at 4.2GW keeps locking in volume at high prices — rental market supply and demand remain tight;
  • Agentic inference + Rubin supply premium + power constraints: three forces pushing rents up, with no near-term reversal in sight;
  • Decision framework: steady workloads 2 years+ → the build window opens; tidal workloads → keep renting; hybrid strategies are most price-hike resistant;
  • What to watch: whether other clouds follow with price moves, formal Rubin rental pricing, and whether a public rental market for domestic compute emerges.

Further Reading​

References​

  • ZhiXun (media): Nebius raises AI chip rental prices; from October 1, H100/H200/B200 on-demand rates rise about 20% on average (2026-09-21)
  • Cailian Press / East Money: CoreWeave deploys multi-rack Vera Rubin NVL72 cluster, contracted power grows to 4.2 GW (2026-09)

This article is compiled from public reports; TCO conclusions depend on assumptions such as utilization, electricity price, and discount rate. Please re-compute with your own parameters using the TCO calculator.